Macro Scenarios

Meet MARG, MABEL, and MAY, the Three Daughters of MAGA

MARG – Make America Really Great (25%)

In this scenario, Trump's golden age comes to fruition through a policy of coercing enemies and pressuring allies. The strength of the US dollar is maintained by threats of tariffs and Trump's personal influence in encouraging wealthy global investors to invest in the US. This leads to a natural realignment of global allies around Trump based on America's strength. Foreign adversaries settle long-brewing conflicts, and global issues such as climate change are addressed through science and innovation. The resulting peace dividends lead to another Clinton-like golden age.

S&P 500 +15%
US10Y Treasury Yield -1.5% (absolute percentage)
U.S. Dollar Index +10%
West Texas Intermediate -20%

MABEL – Make America BELlwether (50%)

This scenario represents a situation of two steps forward, one step back. The US is unable to end foreign conflicts, leading to significant strain on government finances. A bipolar global order emerges, with America's leadership in technology being challenged. BRICS nations develop alternatives to the US dollar, resulting in high volatility in global markets. Private capital becomes reluctant to invest in long-term growth, and the government is weighed down by debts and struggles to fund infrastructure and education. This scenario feels like a precursor to the eventual collapse of Rome.

S&P 500 flat
US10Y Treasury Yield -0.5% (absolute percentage)
U.S. Dollar Index -5%
West Texas Intermediate flat

MAY – Make America Yikes (25%)

Market rumors suggested that Trump was four days away from having to shut down the US Federal Government when he took office. This explained why he quickly shut down all federal grants, loans, foreign aid, and research funds, along with a sudden policy reversal on China despite his base. Deepseek then shattered the false perception of US absolute leadership in technology. Other rumors backed by anedoctal stories suggest that US military might was being challenged around the world but was clumsily withdrawing from global dominance. While this scenario presents significant challenges, it is also seen as a necessary step to acknowledge and address underlying problems, ultimately leading to a managed decline.

S&P 500 -15%
US10Y Treasury Yield +2% (absolute percentage)
U.S. Dollar Index -20%
West Texas Intermediate +20%

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